Economist David Rosenberg says the U.S. is already in recession and markets are in denial. In this new Kitco News interview, Rosenberg breaks down why the Beige Book data is being ignored, why job losses will be the next market shock, and why he believes tariffs are global tax hikes with serious consequences. He also explains why the Fed is stuck and rate cuts could come sooner than Wall Street expects - despite public pressure from Trump and lagging inflation metrics.

Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, also warns that markets are mispricing risk, bond yields are too high, and stock valuations don’t reflect declining growth. He calls the idea that tariffs will fund tax cuts “pie in the sky,” and says investors should prepare for a shift when job losses finally hit nonfarm payrolls.

Key topics:
-Recession already here? What the Beige Book and GDI data reveal
-Why job losses will hit by fall—and shock the market
-Fed credibility crisis and Powell’s legacy fears
-Trump's tariff math is “political accounting”
-Why tariffs are stealth tax hikes on the world
-Stocks overvalued, bond yields mispriced
-Rosenberg’s take on rate cut timing and strategy

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00:00 Introduction
01:18 US Recession: Already Here?
03:11 Indicators of Economic Downturn
06:52 Labor Market Analysis
15:47 Federal Reserve and Policy Implications
25:05 Future Economic Predictions
27:34 Tariffs and Economic Impact
28:53 Global Trade and Economic Consequences
31:46 Demographics and Productivity
32:40 Technological Shifts and Labor Market
34:48 Investment Strategies in a Changing Economy
36:12 Aerospace and Defense Sector Insights
38:32 Bullish on Gold and Bonds
46:23 Treasury Market and Bond Investments
51:44 Conclusion

Recession #DavidRosenberg #FedPolicy #KitcoNews #Gold #Tariffs #Stocks #InterestRates #USEconomy

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